News

[akashiver]

More analysis of the what-the-hell? Palin resignation

If she's resigning because of a scandal, it'd better surface soon.

If she's pursuing the presidency, then strategically, Palin's resignation may not look particularly smart: she's not even a one-term governor now. But Palin strikes me as brazenly arrogant, and as a person who believes (not without reason) that experience and excellence count for little in the minds of American voters. (Hell, who heard of Palin before MacCain elevated her from nowhere to be a VP candidate in the last national election? And so what if she isn't going to even be a 1-term governor? Neither was Obama.)

What she has right now is personality, a household name, and the goodwill of guns-n-god conservative voters. Now, her positive-name-recognition factor is likely to diminish in the coming years -- Alaskan governors rarely make the political news -- so if she's going to stay a national figure, it makes a certain kind of sense to focus, not on her job, (hey, since when did that ever matter?), but on solidifying her support within a divided Republican party, doing book tours and making speeches.

Maybe it'll emerge that she resigned because of an Appalachian trail hiking accident involving full latex body suits. But I think we have to brace ourselves for the possibility that Palin recognizes that if she stays put as governor, she'll probably fade back into obscurity. Fundamentally she's an opportunist, and I think she smells opportunity.

Comments

[swan-tower.livejournal.com]

The thing is, even if there isn't a scandal, even if that is her logic -- it'll fail. Yes, she has overwhelming popularity . . . with a small group of people. To achieve victory even in the primary, she would have to win over some of the people she doesn't have right now. Unfortunately for her, those are exactly the kind of people who will remember she couldn't even stick it out for a single term in Alaska. Whatever she does to raise her profile, that's still going to hamstring her; there's a rather large difference between not being even a one-term governor because you never ran for that office, and not being even a one-term governor because you decided to take your toys and go home halfway through.

Now, it may be true that sticking it out in Alaska wouldn't have helped her presidential aspirations. But there were ways to improve her odds, and I don't think this was on the list.

Palin resignation confirmed

[(Anonymous)]

Here's the proof: http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=7W92VW6N25A&preview=article&linkid=2110093b-29d1-4bb3-b2be-2423024af2bb&pdaffid=ZVFwBG5jk4Kvl9OaBJc5%2bg%3d%3d

Sincerely,
MediaMentions

[lyceum-arabica.livejournal.com]

After her performance during the last election, I wonder whether they might be taking her out for a two year intense study in high school civics before she attempts a second bid. That seems like the only way she'd have a realistic chance. And even if that's something *she* wouldn't necessarily think of, I don't think the prime republican candidates (especially people like her and GW) get to act autonomously... they've always struck me a bit more like race horses that get groomed, trained, and finally ridden into the finish line.

[swan-tower.livejournal.com]

I don't think the prime republican candidates (especially people like her and GW) get to act autonomously

The thing is, the people who consider her a prime candidate aren't the sort of people who do that grooming. The base loves her, but the elite sees her as a train wreck. And if there's any top-tier Republican utterly convinced she doesn't need anybody's grooming or training, it's her; the stories out of the McCain campaign make that abundantly obvious.

She should try to get an education; you're right that it's her only realistic chance. But that's exactly what her supporters think she doesn't need.

[lyceum-arabica.livejournal.com]

well, should be interesting to see how it works. not all the elite who do the training agree with each other, and right now she's the single most popular name among the republican base by a decent margin (538 had the stats recently) (although this may only be true because the non-religiously-minded, less conservative republicans have started identifying as independent). maybe some of them are betting that if they can fix her popularity with the rest of the base by fixing her apparent stupidity, she'll have a real shot. The republican machine's at least already made it clear that they're fine electing incapable people, and they don't really care how they go about it... remember the role gay marriage had in getting GW his second term (even though he had no problem with it when he was interviewed as governor of TX). And it's not like they can win *without* the religious base... or even if the religious base just has low turnout. Palin would ensure that *all* of that group came out and voted... volunteered and canvassed even. A female candidate would be a tasty "first" to compete against Obama. And if she sounded smart, a lot of what was revealed in the first election would be over-written.

Now... I'm hoping you're right and she's too stubborn, independent, and inherently stupid to be really trainable. And that most of the electorate is too smart to forget four years ago. But I bet *somoene's* betting that's not the case.

[mindstalk.livejournal.com]

I don't think the machine has that much declarative control. For one thing, her nomination came as a big surprise. And it's an odd decision even so.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Jul04-s.html#1
noted her lame duck justification is lame: she had over a year to re-file to run, so no one would know that she wasn't planning to run again until she told us.

Obama went straight from the Senate to the Presidency and did get criticism for inexperience. Palin... *quit*. Palin, the half-term governor. She's handing out a weapon. And she hadn't exactly faded away.

One thought has been she's running out of legal money, and resigning might lighten the pressure (11-15 ethics investigations) or at least have more freedom to make money on the lecture circuit or a Fox program.